I think Putin is going to nuke a Ukrainian city early next week. There are no more sanctions that can be imposed on Russia, and Russia has a new hypersonic (? some type of sonic, anyway) nuclear missile that cannot be stopped by any defense system, not even by America. Which means Biden won't dare to stand up, or at least 10 American cities will be evaporated. Putin may very well feel he has nothing to lose from such a gamble.
This morning, Sunday 27 February 2022, Putin said in a televised address that he gave the order that all Russia's nuclear arms should be readied 'to defend Russia.' Just so that his Russian population should feel they're under threat by the evil West, but that their strong president will protect them.
The infamous Russian propaganda machine is spreading fake narratives at full throttle now, aimed squarely at the Russian population to win support for a major war. Like, Ukraine invaded the two new republics Luhansk and Donetsk, and Russia had to go and save the millions of people there. And, despite having the censored internet at their fingertips, an increasing number of Russians actually believe it. Fake news is deadly, as religion - the ultimate fake news - proved so many times.
Two weeks ago he had all of them convinced - and idiotic Trumpsters around the world as well - that having 150 000 troops on the border with Ukraine was perfectly normal. Just some military exercises, kids. Stop telling each other Russia is going to invade Ukraine.
Putin knows very well there's no chance at present that any country will attack Mother Russia, heck, the whole Europe and the US made it pretty clear they don't even have the guts to enter a proxy war in Ukraine. The defense excuse is yet another blatant untruth from Putin; the world's biggest nuclear arsenal is being readied to be used.
After Putin's threat - no, it's more than just a threat, it's a statement of intent - the EU imposed the maximum sanctions they could today, amongst others banning any and all Russian planes from all EU airspace. That's going to piss off every Russian billionaire and businessman and tourist.
Plus, in a first ever for the EU, it decided to send as a collective military aid to Ukraine. That is a kick in Putin's teeth, and tells him that as long as there are people alive in Ukraine they'll have guns to fight with. While his are running out.
What if Putin is in cahoots with China, with the latter being ready to then conquer the whole Far East? If the USA, UK, and France gets eliminated from a world war fast, by nuking them, every other country in the world will have to roll over and become colonies of Russia and China.
Russia invested heavily since 2014 in defense systems, with one of it allegedly able to intercept any American nuclear missile. This takes the MAD (mutually assured destruction) belief off the table that assured stability during the Cold War.
After the invasion of the Crimea peninsula in 2014 as a probable test to see how the world would react, Russia amassed a huge piggy bank to offset future punitive measures, it also set up its own version of the SWIFT interbanking system, and - most importantly - it cozied up with pretty much every country in the Far East for economic deals. It's like Putin back then already geared up to make his life-long dream of unification of former USSR states come true. He planned this war before 2014 already, and when Ukraine falls he won't stop.
Big economic and military deals were closed the past decade with the mighty China, but other smaller yet significant economies were roped in by diplomats as well. You've heard of the severe European sanctions and from Canada and the US, but barely a word of condemnation from Far Eastern countries, right. Japan so far is the only exception. Even the US ally India refused to condemn Russia, by abstaining from a vote at the United Nations.
The scenario to go all-out nuclear is a far-fetched stretch of the imagination, but can we really put it beyond Putin? The war in Ukraine can go on for many months, especially now that every European country is pumping in military aid into Ukraine. And the latter can mobilize more than a million civilians as soldiers, that will have shiny new guns every week then.
Meanwhile the severe sanctions back home will temporarily cripple the Russian economy. The business markets already crashed after sanctions were announced, and tens of thousands of Russians took to the streets to protest their mad leader's actions.
Although likely prepared for it, a long drawn-out war is obviously not what Putin would like to see, so sacrificing one or two Ukrainian cities with a nuke or six will end the war into capitulation for Ukraine fast. Why fight in a country if there's nothing left, and why risk another city be vaporized by continuing to fight.
How will the world react then?
Should France or UK fire their few nuclear weapons at Russia, most if not all will be brought down by Russian defense systems, while the country firing it will be obliterated by, say, a thousand Russian nukes. That will get any other country with ideas to roll over and instead close some deals with Russia.
Biden seems to be a lame duck (although I don't think so myself) to Putin, and it's questionable if Biden will have the guts to enter a war with Russia, knowing with whom China will side. Maybe just give up Ukraine and hope Putin will behave thereafter, is the route I think the world will opt for.
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